The US Securities and Exchange Commission has made a “notable” step toward approving spot Solana exchange-traded funds in the US after acknowledging Grayscale’s amended application — in what analysts say is a first for SOL ETFs.
“This is actually newsworthy because the SEC had refused to do this in recent filing attempts for SOL,” Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said of Grayscale’s Feb. 6 amended 19b-4 filing for a spot Solana (SOL) ETF.
Fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said it was a “notable” development, adding: “We are now in new territory, albeit just a baby step, but seemingly the direct result of leadership change.”
The SEC reportedly refused these spot Solana ETFs under Gensler’s watch because they believed they were incorrectly filed as commodity trust shares, finance lawyer Scott Johnsson explained.
Source: Scott Johnsson
In January, Seyffart said it may take until 2026 for the SEC to approve a spot Solana ETF, and that the review process was further complicated by ongoing lawsuits against the likes of Binance and Coinbase, which alleges SOL constitutes an unregistered security.
“The SEC’s Division of Enforcement is calling Solana a security, which prevents other SEC divisions from analyzing it for a commodities ETF wrapper,” Seyffart said at the time.
The final deadline for Grayscale’s spot Solana ETF application is now around Oct. 11, Seyffart said.
A spree of crypto ETF filings has hit the SEC’s desk over the last few weeks as ETF issuers test which products could be approved under the Mark Uyeda-led SEC.
21Shares, Bitwise, VanEck and Canary Capital are also in the running to list spot Solana ETF after Cboe BZX Exchange refiled 19b-4s on their behalf on Jan. 28, while Bitwise even proposed to list a spot Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF on the same day.
Cboe BZX also filed forms for Canary Capital, WisdomTree, 21Shares and Bitwise to list a spot XRP (XRP) ETF in the US on Feb. 6.
Litecoin still looks like it’s next in line
The SEC on Feb. 6 acknowledged Grayscale’s 19b-4 filing to list a spot Litecoin (LTC) ETF, which Seyffart believes is next in line to win SEC approval, following Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The Bloomberg ETF analysts hold this view because Canary’s S-1 filing for a spot Litecoin ETF is already being actively reviewed by the regulator, while applicants for other crypto ETFs have been slower to submit their S-1s.
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Financial services firm JPMorgan estimated an approved spot Solana ETF could attract between $3 billion and $6 billion in net assets over the first year — a prediction Balchunas said was a fairly “reasonable guess.”
Predictions market platform Polymarket estimates there’s a 39% chance that a spot Solana ETF will be approved by the SEC before July 31.
Betting markets on the odds of a spot Solana ETF approval in the US by July 31. Source: Polymarket
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